Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England
Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model[1] to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region[2].
Total of 8,570 regions (or wards) were introduced.
Model parameters were randomly distributed according to experimental data acquired for Wuhan[3]:
| Parameter | Distribution |
|---|---|
| Incubation period | lognorm(meanlog=log(5.2),sdlog=0.35) |
| Reproduction number | gamma(scale=2.2/100,shape=100) |
| Infectious period | uniform(2, 3) |
Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.
Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.
Model was implemented using C programming language and is available at github.
References
- ↑ Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553
- ↑ Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566
- ↑ Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel oronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020
